I have been living in a daily intimate relationship with "weather" for many years. Some examples:

1. In my open-cockpit biplane flying adventures, I needed to make short term, long distance micro-weather (down to the "neighborhood" level) predictions. Errors could have had fatal consequences. Endurance flying adventures also require predictions for very large geographic sections and over longer periods, for trip planning.

2. Living in a place where several ecosystems (ocean, desert, mountain) come together, and where there is a 95% chance of prevailing winds from the west, and living atop a cliff facing west, I get to see weather coming from a long way off, and I experience it pass over me as it changes into something else.

3. I love the weather, no matter what it does. I just love to experience how it changes, and to see the beauty in how it all works in balance, and in accordance with the Laws of the Universe

So, then, in regards to predictions of the weather, and your upset with those who try to do it and get it wrong, I have this to say:

It is possibly not the fault of the predictors, for they are being asked to predict weather in a way that is meaningful to the masses. Your needs are different. They won't tell you anything about the area surrounding your horse farm. They need to predict for an entire city, or the section of the country, and make it brief, and somewhat intelligible to the average high school student. And do it fast. Cheap. That's what they get paid to deliver. anything else, it's up to you. All the data is there for you to take a crack at doing better than the experts, and to predict for your particular area of interest.

Some of the world's largest supercomputers are engaged in weather analysis and prediction. It's a big job to deal with all the constantly changing variables.

I find it all very enjoyable, especially from my hammock.

from a letter to Tricia, 10/19/2006